Uncertainty surrounding prospective types of Brexit is putting the construction and manufacturing sectors at risk, a new report suggests.
The impact on the homebuilding industry has been assessed by Tom Hall, chief economist at AMA Research and Barbour ABI. His report, ‘Overcoming Brexit uncertainty – the impact on the Construction and Manufacturing sectors’, considers how disruptive Brexit could be for homebuilding in the UK.
At the time of writing, Britain is set to leave the European Union on October 31, but it remains to be seen whether this will be with or without a deal.
Hall’s report examines the impacts of a disruptive and a non-disruptive Brexit on companies within the construction and manufacturing sectors, specifically how a ‘deal’ or ‘no deal’ would affect the industries.
Hall estimates that a no-deal Brexit would result in house prices falling by 15% if there is an economic downturn within the next quarter. While this is prospectively positive news for homebuyers, Hall also expects new housing developments to be cancelled.
“You would see a dramatic slowdown in housebuilding very soon after October 31 because, historically, developers follow the mood of the wider economy,” Hall told The Times.
Should Brexit have a disruptive impact on the construction and manufacturing series, Hall’s report details potential consequences such as shortages of skilled and unskilled labour, as well as heightened costs of importing goods to self build a home, including raw materials and components. Self builders, renovators and home improvements could therefore face challenges in the wake of Brexit.
Leaving the EU with a deal would not result in major economic impact in the short-term, Hall writes, which would have a minimal impact on construction and manufacturing. But leaving without a deal would cause disruption to trade and could feed into the homebuilding industry.
Commenting on his findings, Hall said: “It should become clearer as details of the agreement emerge over the next few days. It remains relevant, however, to understand and assess the different possible scenarios and the likely impacts on companies in the construction and manufacturing sectors.”
Homebuilding.co.uk will be closely following updates from Brexit this week and report on how developments may be set to affect the homebuilding sector.