A leak from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) ahead of the official November Budget reveals that the number of houses built in the UK is set to fall sharply in the coming years.
Net additions to the housing stock are projected to drop from 260,000 homes a year in the early 2020s to just 215,000 by 2026‑27 – a 17% decline.
The leaked figures raise concerns about housing supply and affordability before planning reforms are expected to drive a recovery toward 2030.
OBR says homebuilding will dip
The OBR forecasts that net annual additions will remain subdued in the mid-2020s, with cumulative net additions between 2024-25 and 2029-30 expected to reach 1.49 million – around 10,000 fewer than projected in March.
The projected slump reflects subdued housing starts in recent years, higher mortgage rates, and rising building costs. The dip represents the slowest period of housing growth in the decade before planned reforms take effect.
OBR predicts homebuilding rebound by 2030
From 2027 onwards, the OBR anticipates a strong rebound in housebuilding. By 2029-30, net additions could reach 305,000 homes a year – the highest level in decades.
This recovery is linked directly to expected improvements in the planning system, which the government says will remove bottlenecks, speed approvals, and make more land available for development.
The planning reforms the OBR believe will help homebuilding
Central to the OBR's projected homebuilding recovery is the Planning and Infrastructure Bill, which aims to overhaul the UK’s planning system:
- Delegated decisions: Many planning applications would be determined by officers rather than committees, speeding up approvals.
- Strategic planning authorities & Spatial Development Strategies (SDS): Regional-level frameworks to coordinate housing growth across local areas.
- Streamlined infrastructure consents: Faster approvals for nationally significant projects, including housing, transport, and energy.
- Simplified environmental rules & nature restoration fund: Reduces delays caused by environmental consents while maintaining safeguards.
Government analysis suggests these reforms will significantly increase the pace of housing delivery, underpinning the OBR’s 305,000-home forecast by 2029-30.
