UK households are bracing for a significant energy price rises this summer as analysts at Cornwall Insight forecast the energy price cap for July‑September 2026 could reach nearly £1,973, one of the highest levels in recent years outside the worst of the previous energy crisis.
That would represent a jump of more than £330 compared with the current cap of £1,641 for April–June, which itself reflected a recent fall in prices.
The projected surge is being tied to volatility in global gas and oil markets following the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Article continues belowExperts predict 'notably higher price cap'
Analysts at the independent energy consultancy Cornwall Insight calculated their latest forecast using wholesale market price data as of 19 March 2026, estimating the Default Tariff Cap – the annualised cap for a typical household using 11,500 kWh of gas and 2,700 kWh of electricity – at £1,972.53 for July–September 2026.
“Our model shows the potential for a notably higher price cap if current market trends continue,” Cornwall Insight said in its recent commentary.
Although this figure is based on forward wholesale prices rather than final regulatory data, it highlights how global pressures are impacting domestic energy costs.
How large of a rise will this be?
The current energy price cap set by Ofgem for the period 1 April–30 June 2026 is £1,641 for a typical dual‑fuel household paying by direct debit – down from £1,758 in the January–March 2026 quarter.
The average costs are:
- Electricity: £882
- Gas: £759
The July forecast of £1,972.53 represents a £331 increase overall:
- Electricity rises by £72.46 to £954.46
- Gas rises by £259.07 to £1,018.07
If Cornwall Insight’s July forecast holds, the new cap would be £331 higher per year than this current level, meaning households on standard variable tariffs could see their bills rise sharply.
Where would this price hike rank historically?
While the projected July cap would be one of the highest in recent years, it remains below the record peak reached during the 2022–23 energy crisis, when the typical annual cap soared to around £3,500–£4,000 due to global gas price shocks following the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
Analysts note that the July 2026 forecast reflects a return to higher costs driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rather than an extreme energy crisis.
“Although this isn’t the absolute peak we’ve seen historically, a cap approaching £2,000 still represents a significant burden for many households,” Cornwall Insight added.
Observing how global wholesale energy prices evolve before May will be critical, as Ofgem finalises the official July–September price cap based on data over the preceding three months.
